- In practice, scientific research is continuously making decisions or bets about the future. When we decide which research projects to fund, what sort of infrastructure to build, what kind of specialists to train or what types of technologies to invest in, we are making assumptions at the same time about what the world will be like in five, ten or even twenty years from now. Nevertheless, we seldom state or systematically test these assumptions as yet. For this reason, in our Comment piece published in Nature, my co-authors and I propose that proven methods of futures studies should become an integral part of scientific thinking and decision-making- said Bertalan Meskó in response to an inquiry from hirek.unideb.hu.
Our medical futurist revealed that the objective of “translational foresight” is not to predict the future, but to examine what kind of different futures are conceivable, what assumptions a research plan is based on and prompted by what sort of early warning signs it should be modified or adjusted. In his opinion, this could be achieved by using easy-to-learn practical methods, like, for example, “horizon scanning,” which is the systematic monitoring of early signs and trends; “scenario analysis,” in which several different but realistic futures are compared and examined; the “future wheel,” which can be used to map up the direct and indirect consequences of a new technology or change; and “backcasting,” in which researchers start from a desirable future goal and work in reverse in order to determine and map out the steps required to get there.
- A research plan or proposal today typically outlines what we want to investigate, what methods we will be using, what results we expect, and what resources we need for that purpose. We much more seldom ask what would happen if, five years from now, the technological, regulatory or social environment were completely different from what we currently expect or anticipate. By applying a futures studies approach, research teams could, for example, examine what would happen if a breakthrough technology emerged in the near future, regulations in the given field changed or the technological platform on which the project is based became obsolete. It would not be necessary to draw up a separate research plan for every one of these possibilities, but it would be expedient to identify the warning signs that indicate that the original assumption would no longer be valid and that action must be taken- he said.
Bertalan Meskó emphasized that this approach could result in a more flexible research program, better long-term infrastructure planning, more conscious research funding, and a new kind of scientific training in which managing uncertainty about the future is just as fundamental a skill as statistical or methodological thinking. In their proposal, they dub this result as “futures literacy.” One of the main focal areas of Bertalan Meskó‘s current research is the examination of how artificial intelligence is transforming the medical professions.
- In a current study, we are analyzing twenty-two medical specialties at the task level in order to examine the extent to which individual medical activities can be transformed by using artificial intelligence. We wish to demonstrate and prove that AI will not ‘replace’ medical professions; rather, it needs to be understood much more precisely which tasks in each specialty may change significantly and how medical education could foresee and prepare for these changes- said the researcher.
Bertalan Meskó graduated as a physician from the University of Debrecen, where he also earned his PhD. He has been teaching courses in medical education for nearly two decades and is currently working with his PhD students at the university to establish a workshop dedicated exclusively to research on the future of medicine.
- Bertalan Meskó has been offering online courses for a number of years (The Digital Health Course and Introduction to Artificial Intelligence in Medicine) as a contract instructor at the Department of Operative Techniques and Surgical Research. We are also preparing to establish an Artificial Intelligence Working Committee within the faculty, in which Bertalan Meskó would have a leading role. The technology based on artificial intelligence is becoming increasingly significant worldwide in enhancing the effectiveness of education, research, modern diagnostics and patient care. Obviously, it cannot replace humans or substitute for genuine medical expertise and competencies, yet it can provide significant assistance in decision-making and in countless processes across the diverse fields of medicine. The proper, regulated and appropriately critical use of AI is now part of our everyday life. In this regard, we also rely on Bertalan Meskó’s internationally recognized expertise to assist in the comprehensive efforts of the working committee- said Professor Norbert Németh, Dean of the Faculty of Medicine.
Bertalan Meskó continues to work on establishing the scientific frameworks for Medical Futures Studies and on developing the methodology of translational foresight further. The common objective of these efforts is to move thinking about the future from the realm of impressions and predictions towards a more structured and scientifically applicable methodology.
Bertalan Meskó graduated as a physician from the University of Debrecen in 2009 as a recipient of the Weszprémy Award and earned his PhD in clinical genomics in 2012. In order to combine his medical and technological perspectives, he created a new profession called “The Medical Futurist,” in which his mission is to bring useful technological innovations into everyday clinical practice. His book The Guide to the Future of Medicine, published in the United States in 2014, made it to Amazon’s global top 100 list. Térkép a jövőhöz (Map to the Future), his Hungarian book, was published in 2025. He has given hundreds of talks on the future of medicine at Yale, Stanford and Harvard Universities all the way to the World Health Organization headquarters. He was also a lecturer for the exclusive Futuremed course organized by Singularity University at NASA headquarters. He has published as articles on the future of medicine on CNN’s Health page and has been featured in The New York Times, TIME magazine, FORBES, and the
BBC. He is a member of the Scientific Subcommittee on Statistics and Futures Studies of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. He enjoys a “certified superforecaster” status in the international futures research community Good Judgment Inc.
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